Mission
Join us in advancing climate-sensitive modelling of Culex pipiens.Through this modelling exercise, we invite participants to submit model outputs that we will use to develop ensemble predictions of both the temporal activity of Culex pipiens at selected locations and its spatial suitability across Europe. By providing a common framework, we aim to compare predictions, identify areas of agreement and uncertainty, and create a shared modelling resource that can support future research and public health applications.
Mission Time
We provide daily meteorological data extracted from the CERRA reanalysis for two study locations from 2014 to 2026:
- Petrovaradin, Serbia, with daily adult Culex pipiens observations available for 2016 and 2017.
- Larnaca, Cyprus, with weekly adult Culex pipiens observations collected during 2025.
The meteorological dataset includes daily air temperature, total precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity. A map of the study locations together with summary plots of the environmental variables are provided below, while the complete time series can be downloaded in CSV format at this link.
The objective is to develop models capable of reproducing the observed adult mosquito abundance at these locations and to estimate the average weekly seasonal dynamics of Culex pipiens. Participants are free to use any modelling framework. We would appreciate being informed of any additional publicly available datasets used so that they can be documented and, where appropriate, included in the shared dataset.
Mission Space
The second challenge focuses on the spatial distribution of Culex pipiens. Unlike Mission Time, no meteorological data are provided. Participants are invited to develop habitat suitability models using any environmental predictors, occurrence records, or modelling techniques they consider appropriate.
The expected output is a habitat suitability map on the CERRA grid, submitted either as a NetCDF or GeoTIFF file.
Sharing models
We strongly encourage participants to share the scripts used to produce their results. Self-contained scripts greatly facilitate reproducibility and will help us compare model outputs under identical environmental conditions. With the authors' permission, contributed models may be integrated into the open VEClim model repository, allowing the community to run and evaluate them interactively after the workshop.